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Education
1979 Ph.D. (Psychology),Yale University
1976 M.A. (Psychology), University of British Columbia
1975 B.A. (Honors), University Of British Columbia
Positions Held
At Haas since 2001
2005 - 2006 Russell Sage Scholar
2002 - Present Mitchell Professor of Organizational Behavior, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley (also affiliated with Psychology and Political Science)
1996 - 2001 Harold Burtt Professor of Psychology and Political Science, The Ohio State University
1993 - 1994 Fellow, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University
1993 - 1995 Distinguished Professor, University of California, Berkeley
1987 - 1996 Professor of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley
1984 - 1987 Associate Professor, Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley
1980 - 1995 Research Psychologist, Survey Research Center, University of California, Berkeley
1979 - 1984 Assistant Professor, Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley
External Service and Assignments
- Editorial Boards in last 10 years: Annual Review of Psychology, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Political Psychology, and the National Research Council's quality-control editor for its committee on interactive conflict resolution workshops.
- National Committee Service in the last 10 years: National Research Council committee on international conflict; Social Science Research Council committee on international security
- Miscellaneous Consulting Activities: Development of Group Dynamics Q-Sort (and other Remote Assessment Techniques) for the U.S. Government's Office of Leadership Analysis; Critical Analysis of Political Forecasting and Risk Assessment Techniques for U.S. Government Intelligence Agencies; Advisory Panel to HumRRO on Incorporating Bayesian Belief Updating Techniques (NETTICA) into Leadership Assessments; Expert Witness on the hypothesized power of implicit prejudice/stereotyping in the work place.
Current Research and Interests
- Learning from experience: How do experts think about possible pasts (historical counterfactuals) and probable futures (conditional forecasts)? And how do experts respond to confirmation/disconfirmation of expectations?
- Designing accountability systems: How do people cope with various types of accountability pressures and demands in their social world? When does accountability promote mindless conformity? Defensive bolstering of prior positions? Thoughtful self-critical analysis? …
- De-biasing judgment and choice. How can organization structure incentives and accountability procedures to check common cognitive biases such as belief perseverance and over-confidence? What adverse side effects can such de-biasing efforts have on quality of decision-making?
Selected Papers and Publications
- Mitchell, P.G. & Tetlock, P.E. (in press). Anti-discrimination law and the perils of mind reading. The Ohio State University Law Review.
- Tetlock, P.E., Visser, P., Singh, R., Polifroni, M., Elson, B., Mazzocco, P., & Rescober, P. (in press). People as intuitive prosecutors: The impact of social control motives on attributions of responsibility. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology.
- Moore, D., Tetlock, P.E., Tanlu, L, & Bazerman, M. (2006). Conflicts of interest and the case of auditor independence: Moral Seduction and Strategic Issue Cycling. Academy of Management Review, 31, 10-29.
- Tetlock, P.E. & Parker, G. (2006). Counterfactual thought experiments: Why we can't live with them and how we must learn to live with them. In Tetlock, P.E., Lebow, R.N., & Parker, G. (Eds.) (2006). Unmaking the West: What-if scenarios that rewrite world history.
- Arkes, H. & Tetlock, P.E. (2004). Attributions of implicit prejudice, or Would Jesse Jackson fail the Implicit Association Test? Psychological Inquiry, 15 (4), 257-278.
- Tetlock, P.E., & Arkes, H. (2004). The implicit-prejudice exchange: Islands of consensus in a sea of controversy. Psychological Inquiry, 15(4), 311-321.
- “Expert Political Judgment: How Good is it? How Can we Know?” (2005), Princeton University Press
- “Unmaking the West: Counterfactuals, Contingency, and Causality” (R.N. Lebow and G. Parker, Eds)
- Tetlock, P.E. (2002). Social-functionalist metaphors for judgment and choice: The intuitive politician, theologian, and prosecutor. Psychological Review.
- Tetlock, P.E. & Lebow, R.N. (2001). Poking counterfactual holes in covering laws: Cognitive styles and historical reasoning. American Political Science Review.
- Tetlock, P.E. (2001). Cognitive biases in path-dependent systems: Theory driven reasoning about plausible pasts and probable futures in world politics. In T. Gilovich, D. W. Griffin, & D. Kahneman. (Eds.). Inferences, heuristics and biases: New directions in judgment under uncertainty. New York: Cambridge University Press.
- Tetlock, P.E. (2000). Cognitive biases and organizational correctives: Do both disease and cure depend on the ideological beholder? Administrative Science Quarterly, 45, 293-326.
- Tetlock, P.E., Kristel, O., Elson, B., Green, M., and Lerner, J (2000). The psychology of the unthinkable: Taboo trade-offs, forbidden base rates, and heretical counterfactuals. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 78, 853-870.
Teaching
- XMBA205 - Creating Effective Organizations, Fall 2006
Honors and Awards
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Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2009
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Harold Lasswell Award for Distinguished Scientific Contribution in the Field of Political Psychology, 2008, International Society of Political Psychology
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Grawemeyer World Order Prize, 2007
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Earl Cheit Award for Teaching Excellence, Berkeley-Columbia Executive Program, 2007
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Woodrow Wilson Award for best book published on government, politics, or international affairs, 2006, American Political Science Association (for solo-authored Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?)
- Robert E. Lane Award for best book in political psychology, American Political
Science Association, 2006, for Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?
- National Academy of Sciences Award for Behavioral Research Relevant to the Prevention of Nuclear War, 1999
- Nevitt Sanford Award for Distinguished Professional Contributions to Political Psychology, International Society of Political Psychology, 1997.
- Woodrow Wilson Book Award, American Political Science Association (co-recipient with P. Sniderman & R. Brody, for Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology) 1992.
- Vice President, International Society of Political Psychology, 1991-1993
- American Association for the Advancement of Science Prize for Behavioral Science Research, 1988.
- MacArthur Fellow, 1987.
- Fellow of Division 8 of the American Psychological Association, 1987.
- Erik H. Erikson Award of the International Society of Political Psychology, 1987.
- Selected, Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, 1987.
- Distinguished Scientific Award for Early Career Contribution to Social Psychology, American Psychological Association, 1986.
- Governor-General's Gold Medal, Award for Undergraduate Academic Excellence, 1975.
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