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In Brief
Going for the Gold
Before the Olympic Games in Athens last summer, Meghan
Busse, visiting assistant professor, and Dartmouth
colleague Andrew Bernard, used their statistical model
to successfully predict the total number of medals given
to each country with an overall accuracy rate of 97%.
They trumped their 96% accuracy rate for their predictions
for the 2000 games in Sydney.
Drawing on population, per capita income, past performance,
and a host effect (for the country hosting the Olympics),
their research shows how much simple economic factors
can affect the performance of a non-economic event such
as the Olympics.
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