California Wants Millions Of Heat Pumps. High Power Bills Might Get In The Way

February 23, 2026

Cal Matters

Lucas Davis conducted research on 70 years of home heating data that reveals that energy price is the strongest predictor of electric heating adoption. He notes that electric heating is most common in the Southeast due to cheap electricity. This research highlights a challenge for California’s heat pump adoption goals, as the state’s high electricity rates impede electrification efforts despite climate ambitions.
Story also covered by: San Mateo Daily Journal, Seattle PI, CT Insider
“But for all of California’s reputation as a climate champion, most of its homes don’t rely on electric heat. Nearly two-thirds use natural gas, well above the national average of 51%. 

That isn’t surprising, said Lucas Davis, a UC Berkeley energy economist.

Looking at 70 years of home heating data across the country, Davis’ research has found that the best predictor of whether a household uses electricity to stay cozy in the winter is the price of energy. 

‘To this day, where do we see that electric heating is the most common? Throughout the southeast,’ said Davis. ‘What do we know about the southeast? Cheap electricity.'”

Photo: calmatters.org