What Do Rising Gas Prices Mean For Californians?

March 19, 2026

KQED

Severin Borenstein, Energy Institute Faculty Director, discusses on KQED the factors driving rising gasoline prices in California, including global oil market dynamics, regional supply constraints, and the state’s unique fuel regulations.

“Mina Kim: Severin, does that sound about right to you—that it could get to $7, with $10 as a worst-case scenario?

Severin Borenstein: I think $10 is pretty unlikely. Just to translate: when the price of oil goes up $1 a barrel, that translates to about 2.5 cents at the pump. So if we were to go to $200 a barrel, that would add about $2.50 to the price of gasoline, and we’d be around $8. I think that could happen.

Of course, it all depends on how the war evolves and how quickly it ends. The news over the last 24 hours is very bad because both sides have ramped up attacks on energy infrastructure. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, if they can’t get oil and refined products out due to damage, that could further disrupt supply.”

Photo: kqed.org