Ryan Wiser, LBNL
Monday, September 15, 2025
4:10-5:10pm
241 Giannini Hall, UC Berkeley
“Retail Electricity Price Trends: What Do We Know? Where Are the Gaps?”
Abstract: This study analyzes the primary drivers of recent state-level trends in U.S. retail electricity prices. We summarize pricing trends, explore descriptive relationships, and employ regression models to quantify the influence of various factors. Although the recent national rise in retail prices has largely tracked inflation, state-level trends vary widely. We identify a number of factors that explain trends in subsets of states. States with the greatest price increases typically exhibited shrinking customer loads—in large measure linked to growth in behind-the-meter solar—and had renewables portfolio standards (RPS) that required additional renewable energy supply. By contrast, the 75 percent of recent utility-scale wind and solar deployment that occurred outside RPS programs had no broadly discernible positive impact on retail prices and had suggestive (weak) evidence of reducing prices over the most recent time periods. Extreme weather, natural disasters, and wildfires also contributed to sizable price increases in some states, most notably in California, where wildfire risk mitigation and liability insurance were major cost drivers. Fluctuations in natural gas prices—particularly following the onset of the Ukraine-Russia war—further contributed to sharp price increases through 2022–2023 in many states, with moderation in 2024. The relative influence of these factors varies across states and over time, and relationships may change in the future. Nonetheless, the findings underscore the diverse set of price determinants and highlight the need for continued research to inform effective policy and ensure customer affordability.