Study Overview
Organizations learn over time. They build organizational capital and form beliefs about their fundamentals. Motivated by recent advances in AI, we study organizational learning technologies that accelerate both processes.
Study Results
We show that, in a large class of models of firm dynamics, the value of organizational learning technologies (VOLT) is governed by two simple statistics: the relative size and lifespan of mature firms. In the United States, VOLT is on the order of one GDP — implying that organizational learning technologies like AI have the potential to double aggregate output. Much of VOLT reflects increases in average firm lifespans rather than productivity. Across industries, VOLT varies widely and is orthogonal to existing AI exposure measures. Overall, our results point to faster organizational learning as a meaningful and distinct channel of AI’s transformative potential, beyond production automation and scientific discovery.
Working Paper: NBER Conference Working Paper
News & media
A new measure finds AI could double U.S. economic output by helping businesses learn faster—or fail faster
April 10, 2026
New UC Berkeley Haas research finds that AI-driven organizational learning could roughly double U.S. economic output in the long run, based on a new metric called VOLT (Value of Organizational Learning Technologies).