Professor | Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication
Management of Organizations
Researcher of confidence and overconfidence, with a focus on forecasting, judgment, and decision making
About
Don Moore is a professor and the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication at the Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley. He received his PhD in Organization Behavior from Northwestern University. His research interests include overconfidence—including when people think they are better than they actually are, when people think they are better than others, and when they are too sure they know the truth. He is only occasionally overconfident.
Expertise and Research Interests
- Decision-Making
- Overconfidence
- Negotiation
- Forecasting
Books
- Don A. Moore, Rene Choudhari, and Aileen Wu. Does the prospect of upward mobility undermine support for redistribution? Journal of Public Economics, 248, 105418.
2025 - Sophia Li, Randall Hale, and Don A. Moore. Is overconfidence an individual difference? Judgment and Decision Making, 20(e25).
2025 - Don A. Moore, Jack B. Soll, Asa Palley and Joshua Klayman. Overconfidence in probability distributions: People know they don’t know but they don’t know what to do about it. Management Science, 70(11), 7345-8215.
2024 - Don A. Moore. Overprecision is a property of thinking systems. Psychological Review, 130(5), 1339–1350.
2023 - Don A. Moore and Max H. Bazerman. Leadership and Overconfidence. Behavioral Science and Policy, 8(2), 59-69.
2022 - Mathur, M. B., et al.. Many labs 5: Registered multisite replication of tempting-fate effects in Gilovich and Risen (2008). Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science.
2020 - Don A. Moore, Amelia S. Dev, and Ekaterina Y. Goncharova. Overconfidence across cultures. Collabra.
2018 - Don A. Moore, Jennifer M. Logg, and Uriel Haran. Is overconfidence a motivated bias? Experimental evidence.. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General.
2018 - Don A. Moore, Cameron Anderson, Elizabeth Tenney, Nathan Meikle, and David Hunsaker. Is overconfidence a social liability? The effect of verbal versus nonverbal expressions of confidence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.
2018 - Don A. Moore, Leif D. Nelson, and Hannah Perfecto. The category size bias: A mere misunderstanding. Judgment and Decision Making.
2018 - Benjamin, D. J. et al.. Redefine statistical significance. Nature Human Behavior.
2017
At Haas since 2010
- July 2023– September 2023, Acting Dean, Haas School of Business
- 2021 – 2023, Associate Dean for Academic Affairs, Haas School of Business
- 2017 – present, Courtesy appointment in the Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley
- 2016 – present, Professor, Management of Organizations Group, Haas School of Business
- 2015 – present, Faculty Director, Xlab
- 2010 – 2016, Associate Professor, Management of Organizations Group, Haas School of Business
- 2000 – 2010, Assistant to Associate Professor of Organizational Behavior, Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University
- President, Society for Judgment and Decision Making (2025)
- Editorial Board of Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (2015 – present)
- Editorial Board of Psychological Science (2015 – present)
- Editorial Board of Judgment and Decision Making (2012 – present)
- Editorial Board of Administrative Science Quarterly (2009 -2013)
- Editorial Board of Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes (2007 – 2009)
- Editorial Board of Organization Science (2007 – 2010)
Barbara and Gerson Bakar Faculty Fellow
2011– 2014
Best Paper Award
Managerial and Organizational Cognition Division of the Academy of Management
2011
IARPA Research Grant
Awarded for grant for: Exploring the Optimal Forecasting Frontier with B. Mellers and P. Tetlock
2011 – 2015
Cummings Scholar Award
Awarded from the Academy of Management, recognizing “significant scholarly achievement during the early- to mid-career stage”
2007
Best Paper Award, Managerial and Organizational Cognition Division of the Academy of Management
2007
Weil Prize (CMU)
Awarded for the paper “Bayesian overconfidence” with Paul J. Healy
2007
National Science Foundation
Research grant for: Correspondence Bias in Performance Appraisal: Why Selecting an Easy Task is a Recipe for Success with Francesca Gino, Zachariah Sharek, and Samuel Swift
2007 – 2009
- Be cautious with polls on Harris-Trump duel, Le Devoir, 09/25/2024
- Is WAR the answer? How one advanced metric has come to dominate MVP voting, The Athletic, 09/16/2024
- Sam Altman says Airbnb’s CEO gave him countless hours of advice on growing OpenAI: He was ‘almost always right’, CNBC, 06/28/2024
- Consumer confidence grows, but the data has limitations, Marketplace, 01/30/2024
- Sam Altman’s self-confidence can be bad for business, according to a leadership expert, Inc., 11/21/2023
- The Supreme Court is infected with the ‘most damaging’ human bias, Politico, 08/30/2023
- Despite what you’ve heard, sadder isn’t wiser, California, 06/08/2023
- Is this ‘recession’ in the room with us now?, Wall Street Journal, 06/07/2023
- Should people with grit ever give up?, Success, 05/19/2023
- UC Berkeley study finds no correlation between depression and individual control, The Daily Californian, 10/20/2022
- Plea de coeur, CBC Radio: As It Happens, 10/20/2022
- Sadder but wiser? Maybe not, The New York Times, 10/18/2022
- Depressed people are just more realistic, right? Not so, says UC Berkeley study, University of California News, 10/13/2022
- Depressed people aren’t just more ‘realistic,’ new study finds, UPI, 10/13/2022
- Accounting’s big lie — and how to fix it, Project on Government Oversight, 10/05/2022
- Leading People, MBA 205
- Executive Decision Making, Executive Decision Making